2011年8月17日星期三

雲裳集 ── 小矮雲

這張相成了我辦公室電腦的桌面圖像,同事看到嘖嘖稱奇:



「在飛機上拍的嗎?」
「吓!不是?」
「為什麼那片積雨雲,雲頂的高度那麼低?」
「難道是低空有個很強的逆溫層?」

不論是武斷還是片面,不去安個像樣的解釋,就感到欠了什麼。

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"The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding."

── 節錄自 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb